Beijing’s nuclear drive gives it an edge in fueling AI, Nicaragua’s large mining concessions that give Beijing a foothold in the region, Western firms’ increasing interest in Ukraine’s battle-tested drone industry, and the US’ enduring reliance on Chinese rare earth production despite heavy government spending.

Key aspects of the EU’s Draghi review remain a work in progress, Indonesia’s richest families increasingly look offshore as domestic political pressure mounts, the Iran war poses a major threat to Dubai’s growth model, and Saudi Arabia’s initial “good war” is unravelling as it confronts renewed fighting in the Red Sea.

India’s private investment cycle returns but remains narrowly concentrated, Europe continues to fall behind the US and China in the critical minerals and rare earths race, Turkiye seeks a foothold in Syria’s energy sector but faces stiff competition, and the UAE’s growing influence in Africa.